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Ben's
Super Bowl Pick
5*
PITTSBURGH
v
Arizona
--- The bottom line here is, the Steelers are the better team overall.
Pittsburgh
has the #1 defense and can attack the Cardinals in many ways. The blitz
can come at Warner from anywhere on the field and they can also drop back
in coverage and make it difficult for Fitzgerald and Boldin to find any
open spaces. I also believe the Cardinals resurgent running game, with
Edgrin James, will not be much of a factor versus the Steel Curtain.
On offense Pittsburgh has the advantage if being able to attack the
Cardinals on the ground and through the air. Although, this is assuming WR
Hines Ward will be able to make his presence felt. This is very important
because when Ward went out versus the Ravens, the Pittsburgh offense was
slowed. The Steelers also have the advantage in Special Teams and a better
clutch kicker.
I believe the Steelers will pressure Warner early and force him to
make an error that will give the Steelers an early 10 or 14 point lead.
When the Cardinals abandon the run, and the Steelers pin back their ears,
Warner will be forced into one or two more turnovers, which will break the
game wide open.
Can the Cardinals win or cover the 7 points? Certainly, if the game
goes their way early and they are fortunate enough to get an early
turnover they may be able to hang on and cover the spread. However,
that’s a big ‘IF’. The Steelers have the ability to overcome any
mistakes they make, the Cardinals do not. I believe the Steelers are the
better team and will win the game. If the Cardinals are good enough to
hang within the 7 points, or lucky enough to get a backdoor cover in the
waning minutes, OH WELL. That’s why if you take the Steelers try to find
a line -6˝ or buy the half off the 7. If the line goes to 7˝, or
greater, definitely decrease your bet. Don’t
forget to check the status of WR Hines Ward before the game. Thanks
and Good Luck, Ben
5* PITTSBURGH 34
--- ARIZONA 17
Loser
_________________________________________________________
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Potential
BPR Plays
Remember, compare the BPR (Ben’s Power Rating) to
the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in
your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential
plays for this week, I have already added the 4 points (Check
individual game’s for line changes):
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·
Arizona
+7.5 or greater
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SUPER
BOWL XLIII
RAYMOND
JAMES STADIUM –
TAMPA
,
FLORIDA
|
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NFL
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SUNDAY,
FEBRUARY 1, 2009
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Potential BPR Plays in Bold
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EST
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Line
Close
|
BPR
|
Play
If
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Final
|
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Pittsburgh
Steelers
|
6:20
|
7
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-3.5
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+1
|
27
|
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Arizona
Cardinals
|
46
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+7.5
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23
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