|
Week 4 Results
|
| Volume
IX-Week 5
|
October 11, 2007
|
|
2007 Results
|
¶
|
Week
|
Year to Date
|
%
|
| Ben's Picks |
+5¶
|
3-2 |
13-11-1 |
54% |
| Ben's
Power Rating (BPR) |
3-6
|
18-17-1 |
51%
|
| Teasers
|
4-3 |
15-12-1 |
56% |
|
Over/Unders
|
2-2 |
12-8 |
60% |
| HD's v
Opposite Turf |
1-0 |
9-4 |
69% |
|
|
Closing
Lines and Final Scores |
|
|
|
Ben's
Picks
All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless
otherwise specified.
|
- Loser
- 5* Tampa
v INDY --- Dungy facing former team, but Indy missing many
weapons. Tampa playing tough, Garcia makes things happen and
doesn’t make mistakes. Close game, parlay the UNDER.
- Loser
- 4* Cleveland
v NEW ENGLAND --- The Browns come to play and QB Anderson
stretches the field. Pats spotting big wood, leave the
backdoor open for former DC Romeo Crennel.
- WINNER
- 4* San
Diego v DENVER --- Bolts under siege. Broncos no
longer dominant at home and terrible against the run. LT makes
a statement.
- WINNER
- 4* Dallas v BUFFALO --- Cowboys full of themselves, just like
their owner. Buffalo getting players back on defense, QB
Edwards an upgrade, Bills play their Super Bowl.
- WINNER
- 3* Atlanta
v TENNESSEE --- Falcons improving. Titans aren’t ready to
spot big numbers.
|
|
|
Picks Results = 3-2
for +2* |
|
|
|
Teasers
(Teasers MUST include key
numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 13, 14, etc.)
|
|
·
Detroit +10
Loser
·
Atlanta +14
WINNER
·
Seattle +10
Loser
·
Cleveland +22
WINNER
·
Tampa +15
Loser
·
San Diego +7
No Play
·
Chicago +7
WINNER
·
BUFFALO +15
WINNER
|
|
|
Teaser Total = 4-3 |
|
|
|
The Over/Under's
|
|
·
Jax v K.C. UNDER
WINNER
·
Seattle
v
PITTSBURGH
OVER
Loser
·
Tampa
v INDY UNDER
Loser
|
-
Dallas
v BUFFALO OVER
WINNER
|
|
O/U Results = 2-2 |
|
|
|
HD's v Opposite Turf
Teams
|
|
|
|
Home Dog Results = 1 |
|
|
|
Closing
Lines and Final Scores |
|
|
|
Potential BPR Plays
Remember compare the BPR (Ben’s Power
Rating) to the spread, in the chart below, and if there’s a difference of
4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are
the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check
individual game BPR's for any line movements):
|
|
|
-
Carolina
-5.5 or less
-
HOUSTON
-5.5 or less
-
Tampa
+1 or greater
-
GREEN
BAY
-9.5 or less
|
- Jax Pick or +
-
Cleveland
+11.5 or greater
-
San Diego
+1.5 or greater
-
BUFFALO
+9.5 or greater
|
- TENN. -9 or less
-
Arizona
-5.5 or less
- SAN FRAN -3 or less
|
|
|
|
|
NFL WEEK 5
|
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 7, 2007
|
|
Potential BPR Plays in Bold
|
EST
|
Line
|
BPR
|
Play
If
|
Notes
|
|
407
Carolina
Panthers
|
E:
1:00
|
44
|
-9.5
|
-5.5
|
QB
Delhomme ? / Defense playing terrible
|
|
408
New Orleans
Saints
|
3
|
|
+13.5
|
After
bye / Missing RB / Need W bad
|
|
409
Jacksonville
Jags
|
E:
1:00
|
2
|
-4
|
Pk
|
After
Bye / Offense bad in red zone
|
|
410
Kansas City
Chiefs
|
36
|
|
+8
|
Bounce
DOWN / Game should be close
|
|
411
Detroit
Lions
|
E:
1:00
|
46
|
|
+8
|
Bounce
DOWN /
Offense
Pass
, Pass, Pass
|
|
412 Wash. Redskins
|
3.5
|
-4
|
Pk
|
After
Bye / QB
Campbell
needs to step up
|
|
413 Atlanta Falcons
|
E:
1:00
|
40.5
|
|
+17
|
Getting
better
|
|
414 Tennessee Titans
|
8
|
-13
|
-9
|
After
Bye / Spotting big #
|
|
415 Miami Dolphins
|
E:
1:00
|
43
|
|
+13.5
|
Fish
allowed Oak 299 yds rushing, nuf said
|
|
416 Houston Texans
|
5.5
|
-9.5
|
-5.5
|
Many
injuries
|
|
417 Seattle Seahawks
|
E:
1:00
|
39
|
|
+8
|
Revenge
for SB XL.
|
|
418 Pittsburgh Steelers
|
5.5
|
-4
|
Pk
|
Haven’t
beat anyone good
|
|
419 Cleveland Browns
|
E:
1:00
|
48
|
|
+11.5
|
Hanging
tough / QB Anderson an improvement
|
|
420 New England Pats
|
16.5
|
-7.5
|
-3.5
|
Big
#, watch out for the backdoor
|
|
421 Arizona Cardinals
|
E:
1:00
|
3.5
|
-9.5
|
-5.5
|
Bounce
DOWN / QB’s still rotating
|
|
422 St. Louis Rams
|
40.5
|
|
+13.5
|
QB
Bulger, RB Jackson OUT / O-line in a shambles / Tough to bet on
|
|
423 New York Jets
|
E:
1:00
|
41
|
|
+7
|
Bad
versus the pass / Don’t have the talent
|
|
424 New York Giants
|
3
|
-3
|
+1
|
Put
it together LW, can they keep it going?
|
|
425 Tampa Bay Bucs
|
E:
4:00
|
46
|
-3.5
|
+1
|
Defense
playing great / Garcia keeps them in games
|
|
426
Indy Colts
|
10
|
|
+7.5
|
Many,
Many major injuries
RB
Addai, WR Harrison, S Sanders
|
|
427
San Diego
Chargers
|
E:
4:15
|
42
|
-2.5
|
+1.5
|
Need
to play a complete game / LT on a mission
|
|
428
Denver
Broncos
|
1
|
|
+6.5
|
Don’t
have the same H field advantage / Haven’t beaten anyone good / 2
seconds from 0-4
|
|
429
Baltimore
Ravens
|
E:
4:15
|
3
|
|
+11
|
Getting
old right before our eyes / B2B R
|
|
430 San Fran Niners
|
35.5
|
-7
|
-3
|
QB
Dilfer faces former team / Offense limited
|
|
431
Chicago
Bears
|
E:
8:15
|
41
|
|
|
