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Thank God
It's Playoff Time
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VII, Week Wildcard
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January 5, 2006
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2005 Results
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¶
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Week
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Year to Date
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%
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| Ben's Picks |
+21¶
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0-4-1 |
41-38-6 |
52% |
| Ben's
Power Rating (BPR) |
6-5-1
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58-60-6 |
49%
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Over/Unders
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1-3 |
30-38-1 |
44% |
| Teasers |
3-1 |
68-18 |
79% |
| HD's v
Opposite Turf |
0-3 |
14-24-1 |
37% |
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The Rant
WOW, so that’s how it feels like to get run over by a semi. My
last few lines of The Rant last week were, “The selections
this week were especially tough to make. Not only do you have to gage the
strengths and weaknesses of the individual teams, you have to also assume
who’s starting and which teams are still mentally interested in winning.
It’s a very tough task and the bottom line here is, take it easy this
week.” Well my friends this observation was right on the money, although
the Picks weren’t going 0-4-1 and –16* in the final week
of the season. It was a very disappointing end to the season, as yours
truly failed to heed his own advice. Not only did two of our selections
lay down like dogs, the others got beat by last minute turnovers that
changed the outcomes of the games. The Falcons were the biggest dog and
the bone goes to their leaders Michael Vick and Jim Mora. Atlanta
was eliminated from the playoffs and got trounced by their rival, the
Panthers. Mora talked all week about how the Falcons wanted to win this
last one to record back 2 back over .500 seasons. Well talk is cheap Mr.
Mora and, if you don’t right the ship next year, you’ll be looking for
work right quick. Michael Vick was of no help at all, some leader. The
Colts wasted everyone’s time with a lackluster win over the lowly Cards.
Indy only won by only 4 and had the Cards nipping at their heels. The
Texans seemed to want to play, but a last minute missed kick cost them the
win and sent the game into OT. San Fran was begging the Texans to take the
Win in the “Bush Bowl” but Houston didn’t want any part of it. The
league should do something about their draft format. This losing on
purpose is ridiculous. The Philly game was also a major bummer. The Eagles
seemingly had control of the game, with the spot and the ball. Then the
Redskins forced a turnover and ran it in for the covering points. It was a
major setback. Last, but certainly not least was Bret Favre’s last game
as a Packer. Mike Holmgren tried his best to give Bret a going away
present and he succeeded, but the Packers still didn’t cover the spread
in an ATS tie. Is Favre really that good to be able to end the game right
on the number? After watching him the last couple of years, I don’t
doubt it, and the Cheeseheads still love him. Why?
The BPR made a slight comeback going 6-5-1, but it
doesn’t mean much in Week 17. The winners were Denver, Cleveland,
Detroit, San Fran, Jacksonville, and St. Louis. The losers were Oakland,
Indy, Chicago, Philly and Cincy. The Bengals wasted jet fuel by making the
trek to Kansas City. The Chiefs still had a slim chance of making the
playoffs and gave Cincy all they could handle and then some. It was Dick
Vermeil’s last game and the Chiefs ended the season with some class. The
Bengals dropped their last 2 games and are headed to the postseason on a
major downer. Coach Lewis got his ass handed to him and it looks as though
he and his young team are not ready to hit the playoffs. Lewis better pull
a magic act because, ready or not, here comes Pittsburgh. Seattle was the
tie. Atlanta, Miami, and New Orleans were not considered plays. The O/U’s
didn’t help matters at 1-3 and the HD’s continued their downward
spiral at 0-3. The Teasers closed out 3-1 and are still
hovering at 79%.
Now it’s time to get down to the nitty gritty. The Playoffs are
here, no one will be resting and everyone will be balls out to win.
There’s no excuses here, it’s win or go home. Who will be ready and
who will be road kill? I love this time of year. Thanks and Good luck, Ben
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Potential BPR Plays
Remember compare the BPR
[Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of
4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are
the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check
individual game BPR's for any line movements):
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- Jacksonville +5 or greater
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Loser |
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No Play |
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Total =
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0 - 1 |
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Closing
Lines and Final Scores |
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Ben's
Picks
All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless
otherwise specified.
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Saturday
4:30 EST
WINNER - 3* Washington v TAMPA --- The Skins enter the
postseason on a major roll winning their last 5 games and securing the
last playoff spot after being left for dead. Joe Gibbs makes his return to
the playoff arena, as does QB Mark Brunnell. The Skins have settled in
nicely after starting the season with Ramsey at QB. He left game one with
a slight injury and never returned to the starting lineup. RB Clinton
Portis carries the load and the veteran Brunnell knows how to manage a
game. The Washington defense is also strong, with Greg Williams chalking
the X’s and O’s. Gibbs, Williams and Brunnell have had playoff success
and that should be an added benefit. The Bucs also sacked up, down the
stretch, winning 4 of 5 and taking control of their division despite using
a green QB, Chris Simms. Simms had some early problems, replacing the
injured Brian Greise midseason, but he’s settled in nicely with the help
of Rookie RB Cadillac Williams. Coach Jon Gruden has also been there and
done that and the Tampa defense is solid, as always, with Monte Kiffin at
the helm. This game is a replay of one of the more exciting games of the
season, Tampa pushed over a 2 point conversion to close out the Skins
36-35. I see a much more defensive struggle in this match up, with both
teams playing close to the vest and running the ball, to stay out of
trouble. Whoever blinks first will be the loser. I think the Skins pass
rush will make Simms blink first. Take Washington and the spot.
Saturday
8:00 EST
Loser - 2* Jacksonville v NEW ENGLAND --- The Jags
took the easy road to the playoffs, pounding out wins against the
weaklings and making the playoffs, despite a major injury to QB Brian
Leftwich. Leftwich will be back starting this game and will be a bit rusty
because of his 5 week absence. Coach Jack Del Rio has molded this team to
be competitive on all fronts and this will be his first ever playoff
appearance as a coach. The Jags have a conservative offense and a strong
defense. The Pats survived another major scare this year, playing through
injuries and again taking the AFC East. Early in the year things did not
look good for the Superbowl Champs, RB Corey Dillon was on the shelf and
SS Harrison was lost for the year, among others. It did not look good, but
enter Tom Brady. Brady put this team on his back for a good month. He kept
them competitive, until the reinforcements arrived, and got them past the
finish line. One of those reinforcements is LB Teddy Bruschi. Now I’m as
sick as you guys hearing about his comeback, but Bruschi’s return
solidified this defense until the new players got their legs under them.
There is no denying the fact that Belichick and the Patriots have been
there and done that, but I’ve got the feeling the Jags have just enough
ammo to hang around until the closing whistle. The Jags have a tendency to
play up or down to the caliber of their opponents, I think they keep it
close. Take Jacksonville and the generous spot.
Sunday
1:00 EST
WINNER - 4* Carolina v GIANTS --- The Panthers made
the Falcons cry Uncle last week and pushed the door open into the
playoffs. The Panthers were a Superbowl participant 2 years ago, but got
backtracked by injuries last year. Coach John Fox has been an excellent
coach the last 4 years and did a fantastic job bringing this team back to
the postseason. Carolina fields a superior defense and a conservative
offense, led by QB Jake Delhomme. Jake doesn’t do anything spectacular,
but he wins games and has been through the playoff grind before. The
Giants made it to the postseason with the benefit of an additional home
game, due to hurricane Katrina, and made the most of it. Coach Coughlin
took over this team 2 years ago, despite much grumbling, but no one is
grumbling now. RB Tiki Barber is the key to the offense and QB Eli Manning
has gotten better with each start, although he still has the tendency to
put one up for grabs. The problem for the Giants presently is their
defense, although adequate, they have been hit with a major injury problem
at both LB and DL. That is not a good omen when facing a veteran team that
has been there before. I believe this injury problem will be the undoing
of the Giants. Take Carolina and the points.
Sunday
4:30 EST
WINNER - 5* Pittsburgh v CINCY --- The Steelers
settled down after a rocky start and won their last 4 to make the
playoffs. Pittsburgh struggled in the early going due to an unsettled RB
rotation and injuries to QB Big Ben Roethlisberger. Ben tweaked his knee
and had to miss 4 weeks and the Steelers had to make due with Tommy Maddox
and Charlie Batch. All I can say is, thank God Ben is healthy. The
Steelers again field a strong running game complimented by a great
defense. This year injuries have promoted Willie Parker to the forefront
and the old man, Jerome Bettis, can still get it done. The Bengals started
quickly out of the gates and have faded down the stretch. QB Carson Palmer
is the real deal and he is the engine that makes all of the pieces work
together. Cincy has great skill players and are extremely difficult to
stop. The Bengals problem lies on defense, where they have allowed a lot
of yards and a ton of points. These 2 teams split their games this season,
with each team winning in the others building. In the first game
Pittsburgh domiated with the run and pounded the Bengals into submission.
In the second game, the Bengals broke out to an early lead and Ben had to
try to bring the Steelers back with a broken thumb, but couldn’t get the
job done. He threw 3 interceptions and that won’t happen here. The Men
of Steel have more experience and I feel that will go a long way into
deciding the winner of this
game. The Steelers have dominated the Bengals in recent years and I look
for that trend to continue here. Take Pittsburgh.
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Total = 3 - 1 for
+10* |
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The O/U's
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WINNER |
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Loser |
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Loser |
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Loser |
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Total =
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1 - 3 |
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Teasers
(Teasers MUST include key
numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)
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No Play |
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No Play |
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WINNER |
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WINNER |
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Total =
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2 - 0 |
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HD's v Opp-Turf
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Loser |
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Total =
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0 - 1 |
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Closing
Lines and Final Scores |
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The Skinny
Legend is available
below.
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NFL WEEK Wildcard
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SATURDAY JANUARY 7, 2006
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Potential
BPR Plays in Bold
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EST
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Line
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BPR
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Play
If
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Notes
– Trends ATS (Against The Spread)
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201 Wash.
Redskins
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4:30
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37
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+6
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10-6
SU / 10-5-1 / 5-0 + SU / 4-4 R/ 8-8 O-U / 3-0 O-U/ 22.4 PF – 18.3
PA / Gibbs 16-5 Playoffs / 4-1 v Tampa / 7-3 RD Playoffs / 3 CB ?
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202 Tampa Bay
Bucs
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2.5
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-2
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+2
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11-5 SU / 7-7-2 / 6-2 H / 6-10 O-U / 18.8 PF
– 17.1 PA / Gruden 5-1-1 Playoffs / Tampa 3-2 H Playoffs / 3-1-1 /
SS,
OG ?, WR Clayton Doubtful /
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203
Jacksonville Jags
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8:00
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37.5
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+5
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12-4
SU / 10-5-1 / 10-5-1 O-U / 6-2 R / 7-3 v Conf / 6-2 O-U R / 22.6 PF
– 16.8 PA / 2-3 RD Playoffs / QB Leftwich to start / 2 DE, CB, LB,
OG ? /
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204 New England
Pats
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8
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-1
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+3
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10-6
SU / 8-8 / 10-6 O-U / 5-3 H / 23.7 PF – 21.1 PA / Belichick 10-1
SU but 5-5-1 ATS Playoffs / NT, TE, CB, WR, RB, LB Bruschi ? /
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SUNDAY
JANUARY 8, 2006
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205 Carolina
Panthers
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1:00
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43
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+5.5
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11-5
SU / 9-6-1 / 6-2 R / 9-7 O-U / 5-1 v Giants / 24.4 PF – 16.2 PA /
3-1 RD Playoffs / Fox 4-0 Playoffs/ RB Davis OUT, LB Morgan ? /
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206 New York
Giants
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2.5
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-1.5
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+2.5
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11-5
SU / 10-5-1 / 8-7-1 O-U / 7-2 H / 1-5 O-U H / 5-1 O-U v Carol / 26.4
PF – 19.6 PA / 7-2 H Playoffs / Coughlin 4-4 Playoffs / Cluster
injuries at LB, DL /
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207 Pittsburgh
Steelers
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4:30
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3
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+4
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11-5
SU / 9-7 / 6-2 R / 8-6-2 O-U / 4-0 R v Cincy / 1-7 O-U R / 4-2 v
Cincy / 24.3 PF – 16.1 PA / 5-4 R Playoffs / Cowher 7-9-1 Playoffs
/ DE, LB ? /
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208 Cincy
Bengals
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46
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-1
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+4
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11-5
SU / 8-7-1 / 5-3 H / 7-8-1 O-U / 5-2 O-U / 0-4 O-U H v Pitt / 26.3
PF – 21.9 PA / 5-1 H Playoffs/ Cincy 1st Playoffs since
1990 / 2 CB, 2 Dl, OT, LB /
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NFC
Post Mortem
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Arizona
Cardinals
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Denny
Green has failed to deliver in the desert. He has tried to rebuild
this roster, but the players he brought in have failed. No running
game. The defense is a joke and still no solid QB.
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Atlanta
Falcons
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This
team is a bunch of gutless frontrunners lead by #7 Michael Vick.
They finished the season 2-6 SU and laid down like dogs in the final
game. Jim Mora better turn it around quick.
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Dallas
Cowboys
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Tuna
brought in Drew Bledsoe and he got what he deserved, no playoffs.
Bledsoe can’t play on the road and crumbles under pressure. Team
is still a couple of players away. Will Tuna stay?
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Detroit Lions
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Looking
for new coach and Matt Millen still in charge. Lions have fairly
good skill players on offense, except QB. Need to bolster O-line.
Defense is adequate. Who will be new QB and coach?
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Green Bay
Packers
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Sherman
was let go and management is quietly hoping Favre leaves with him.
This team was devastated by injuries on O and needs a total rebuild
not old man Brett. Defense decent.
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Minnesota
Vikings
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Tice
is finally gone, but what will happen to QB Culpepper? Brad Johnson
filled in nicely, but is not the long term answer. Defense improved,
but team wilted against superior foes.
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New Orleans
Saints
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Haslett
got his walking papers and he’s happy about it. This team never
had a chance after the hurricane. QB Brooks will be cut. Saints will
start from scratch. Coach has to be crazy to take job.
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Philly Eagles
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Eagles
will remove cancerous T.O. Owens screwed this team and he got what
he deserved in return. What an ass. McNabb will be back from injury.
Good Coach will rebuild on the fly.
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St. Louis
Rams
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Martz
is gone. Rams are a shell of their former selves. Defense is
terrible and offense just can’t make up for the shortcomings. New
Coach will decide which way to take this team.
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San Fran
Niners
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Nolan
didn’t have much to work with and Niners were also hit by injures.
There were several signs of improvement. Jury still out on new QB.
Need more bodies, especially RB.
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Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For
Anyone Under 21 Years of Age
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The Legend
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ATS
– Against Spread
aft
- after
bfr
- before
[BPR]
- Ben’s Power Rating
B2B
– Back To Back
BOUNCE
– Opp. result
D
– Dog
Def
- defense
DDD
– Double Digit Dog
DDF
- Double Digit Favorite
DIV - Division
F – Favorite
L
- Loss
SAND - Sandwich game
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H – Home
HD – Home Dog
HF – Home Favorite
HOME TEAM – In Capitals
LW – Last Week
LY
– Last Year
N-DIV
- Non Division
O/U
– Over /Under
OFF
– Offense
R
– Road
REV
– Revenge
SU
– Straight Up
V
- Versus
W
- Win
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