Ben's Picks

Wildcard

The Rant

              The Picks had a much better outcome this week, now that the games count again, going 3-1 and garnering +10¶. That elevates the Picks season record to 44-39-6 for 53% winners. The winners included a solid 5¶ win by the Steelers. Pittsburgh went into Cincy and made the Bengals look like the children that they are. The Steelers knocked out Carson Palmer and it came out after the game that there was a little bro-ha-ha in the Cincy locker room at half time. It seems WR Chad Johnson and his position coach got into a little tussle and, when Marvin Lewis went to break it up, Johnson took a swing at him too. Minutes later they were on the field for the 3^rd quarter and predictably they were shut out in the second half. There was also much finger pointing after the Bengals got caught with their pants down on a trick play TD by the Steelers. They young Bengals faced adversity and they crumbled under the pressure, as I stated in my write up, experience wins out. The Panthers delivered a 4¶ win with a total dismantling of the Giants, 23-0. I wrote that the G-Men would not be able to hold down Carolina, with all their injuries, and Eli still has the tendency to throw one up for grabs. Right on! Washington also delivered, with a road win over the Bucs. I predicted a defensive struggle and, “Whoever blinks first will be the loser. I think the Skins pass rush will make Simms blink first.” I should have been a fortune teller because Simms thew 2 early interceptions, putting the Redskins up 14-0 and Wash never looked back. The lone loser was Jacksonville. I thought the Jags would be able to keep it close, and they did, but the Pats pulled away in the 2^nd half. It was a great Wildcard Week and hopefully we can keep it up. This week all 4 games are replay’s of previous match ups this year. If you are interested in checking out the previous games stats, go to my website at www.benspicks.com and click on the Links. That will take you to a page where you can bring up the previous games. It helps to stay informed and do your homework. How do you think I got to be so smart? Just kidding. Thanks and Good Luck, Ben

    Remember compare the BPR [Ben’s Power Rating] to the spread and if there’s a difference of 4 points or more, in your favor, then that’s a potential play. Below are the potential plays for this week; I have already added the 4 points. (Check individual game BPR's for any  line movements):

• DENVER -3 or less

• Pittsburgh +9.5 or greater

• CHICAGO -1 or less

Total = 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

All trends are ATS (Against The Spread) unless otherwise specified.

Saturday 4:30 EST

Loser - 5* Washington v SEATTLE --- The Skins went into Tampa and hopped on the Bucs early, 14-0, after 2 key turnovers in the 1^st quarter. Those early breaks took Tampa out of their game plan and the Bucs could not recover. Washington’s solid defense clamped down on the Bucs and the offense did what it had to do, despite gaining only120 total yards. The Seahawks secured home field advantage early and soared into the playoffs 13-3 SU. Seattle has one of the best offenses in the NFL, with Matt Hasselbeck at QB, and RB Alexander the MVP of the league. Alexander was very impressive, setting the record for TD’s this year at 28. The Seahawk defense is also a plus, having been revamped this year and coming to play every game. Everyone is giving the Redskins a minimal chance of survival here, given their apparent deficiencies on offense, hence the 9 point spread. I don’t see it that way. The Seahawks played one of the easiest schedules in the league and when challenged by good teams, Jacksonville, Washington, Dallas, and the Giants, they were taken to the limit. The Skins on the other hand, played a very difficult schedule and were out of only 1 game all year. Last week, with a slightly injured QB, Mark Brunell, the Skins did what they had to do to survive, nothing more and nothing less. They ran the ball, with Clinton Portis, and kept it away from the Bucs. This is a rematch of a Week 4 OT home win by the Skins, 20-17. I reviewed that game on DVD and as far as I could tell, these 2 teams are dead even and the game deserved to go into OT. You’ve got 2 even teams and one of them is getting 9 points, it ain’t brain surgery my friends. Washington plus the 9 is the play. The Skins might even pull the upset in a hard fought battle.

Sunday 4:30 EST

WINNER - 5* Carolina v CHICAGO --- The Panthers shocked the Giants last week and shut them out, 23-0, on their home turf. Carolina pounded the ball with RB Deshaun Foster and the G-Men had no answer for him, or WR Steve Smith. On defense, the Panthers rattled Eli Manning and exposed him as the Greenhorn that he is. The result was an easy win by John Fox and company. Few people seem to remember that this is basically the same team that went to the Superbowl 2 years ago. Carolina gave the Patriots all they could handle and even had the lead in the 4^th quarter. Last year the Panthers were devastated by multiple injuries to their RB’s and they also lost WR Smith for the year. Fox had to make a few changes and after the midpoint of the season, they went 6-2 SU and this year they’re 12-5 SU for a total of 18-7 over that span. That’s pretty impressive, if you ask me. The Bears are here because of their defense. They are a solid group and have drawn comparisons to the Bears Superbowl defense and deservedly so. Where this team differs from the Superbowl Bears is on offense. QB Kyle Orton took over for the injured Rex Grossman and he’s a backup at best. They have a decent RB in Thomas Jones, but their receiving corps is mediocre. Grossman will return as the starter here, but he’s only had 7 starts in the last 3 years, how ready can he be? Look what happened to Eli, the Greenhorn, last week, and the Giants have a good offense, what do you think is going to happen to the virtual rookie Rex? This is also a replay of a Week 11 match up this year, in which Chicago won 13-3 at home. I also reviewed that game on DVD and the Bears got 2 early turnovers to take a 10-0 lead and the teams only traded field goals after that. Chicago was able to put pressure on QB Jake Delhomme, with 8 sacks, but WR Smith still caught 14 balls. If the Panthers can stay clean, watch out. Don’t forget about the experience factor too, Coach Fox and company are 5-0 ATS in the playoffs, while this is Lovie Smith’s first foray into the postseason. It’ll be one and done for Lovie. Take Carolina plus the 3 in a low scoring battle.

Sunday 1:00 EST

Loser - 3* Pittsburgh v INDY --- The Steelers knocked out Carson Palmer and it was only a matter of time before the Bengals succumbed to their will. Pittsburgh pounded Cincy relentlessly with the run, threw in a trick play for good measure and advanced in the playoffs. The Steelers have been the same story the last 10 years, with Cowher as Coach, run the ball and play strong defense. This year they had to play through a couple of Ben Roethlisberger injuries, but recovered nicely to make the playoffs. The Colts have had home field locked up for what seems like 2 months now. They’ve rested their starters and Coach Dungy had to go through a terrible ordeal with his son. Now it’s time to focus on football. The Colts and Peyton ‘Munster’ I mean Manning have been unstoppable. They started the season 13-0 and only had one real setback against a very good Chargers team. Indy can do it all run, pass, special teams and now they have the added benefit of a decent defense. Throw in the fact that they are playing at home, on a fast track, and these Colts look unbeatable and maybe they are. This is also a replay of a Week 12, Monday Night, match up that the Colts won, 27-6. The score was indicative of the game, as the Colts scored on their first play from scrimmage, an 80 yard bomb to Harrison, and never looked back. It was Big Ben’s 1^st game back from injury and Cowher had an onsides kick backfire on him to start the second half. I see more of the same happening here. The Colts should take the early lead and force the Steelers out of their run mode. Then Indy defensive line will be able to get to Big Ben. Indy has been waiting for this and will make Pittsburgh pay, big time.

Saturday 8:00 EST

Loser - 2* New England v DENVER --- The Pats swatted away the Jags at home last week and rekindled their playoff dominance. New England has now won an unheard of 10 straight playoff games and have their sights set on Superbowl XL. I prefer 2 XL myself. This year the Pats again, played through major injuries, but Coach Belichick had them ready and Tom Brady carried this team on his back for most of the season. The Jags were no match for this playoff tested foe and you can never count the Pats out. Denver has been playing well on both sides of the ball. Jake Plummer gets the job done on offense, with a solid running game and capable receivers. The Bronco defense was bolstered with the addition of several linemen this year, they helped solidify the defensive front. Denver has been bounced out of the playoffs early the last 2 years and Coach Shanahan hopes this change will help them advance. QB Plummer has also made some strides by cutting down on his turnovers, but I don’t buy it, a leopard can’t change his spots. I believe Coach Belichick and the experienced Patriots will be able to rattle Plummer and cause him to make a couple of turnovers. This will be all the Patriots need to get them to that widely anticipated match up with the Colts in Indy. Take New England plus the 3 and watch the Masters, Brady and Belichick, at work.

• Wash v SEATTLE UNDER

• New England v DENVER OVER

• Pittsburgh v INDY UNDER

• Carolina v CHICAGO UNDER

Total = 

  (Teasers MUST include key numbers: 3, 6, 7, 10, 14, etc.)

• Washington +14

• New England +8

• INDY -3

• Carolina +8

Total = 

• None

Total = 

Closing Lines and Final Scores

Legend is available below.

 

AFC Post Mortem
Baltimore Ravens	Underachieved last year and Coach Billick will be up against it. QB Kyle Boller still and unknown entity and LB Ray Lewis a year older. Need to keep D together and more firepower.
Buffalo Bills	Marv GM? Maybe Lou Saban will be the next Head Coach. Mularkey should have been let go. Need to rebuild both lines and D backfield. No outright starting QB. Marv will bring team together, but it will take a couple of years. Do Ralph and Marv have that long?
Cleveland Browns	Made great strides under Romeo. Will get better. New QB a plus. Need a go to RB and another WR. Defense needs some bodies also. 1 year away from competing.
Houston Texans	Laid down last game to secure 1st pick. Could use RB Bush, but QB Young from Houston. QB Carr may be packing his bags. New Coach will have his work cut out. No O line at all.
Kansas City Chiefs	Edwards takes over and is in a good position. Need to tighten up the defense to compete with the big boys. If they make the right moves look out.
Miami Dolphins	Wow, what an improvement under Saban. A good D got better and the O settled down in the second half. Need a good QB and another top WR to compete with New England.
New York Jets	In big trouble. Lost Coach and QB situation up in the air. RB Martin on his last leg. Edwards couldn’t wait to get out. Bye-Bye Vinny – FINALLY!
Oakland Raiders	Coach would have to be crazy to take this job, nothing more than an Al Davis puppet. QB Collins could be gone and WR Moss had an off year. Defense is old and Bad especially secondary.
San Diego Chargers	How did this team miss the playoffs? Bad coaching by Marty. Marty will have to put up or else. QB Brees got hurt last game and will complicate matters with QB Rivers. Can still get better on defense, but coaching is the key and Marty doesn’t get it done in big games.
Tennessee Titans	Many injuries this year. Fisher is a good coach, but he needs to turn it around quick. QB McNair a year older and need WR’s. D needs several players and Pac Mac is and asshole. Bad Pick!

Information Purposes Only - Not Intended For Anyone Under 21 Years of Age

ATS – Against Spread

aft - after

bfr - before

[BPR] - Ben’s Power Rating

B2B – Back To Back

BOUNCE – Opp. result

D – Dog

Def - defense

DDD – Double Digit Dog

DDF - Double Digit Favorite

DIV - Division

F – Favorite

L - Loss

SAND - Sandwich game

H – Home

HD – Home Dog

HF – Home Favorite

HOME TEAM – In Capitals

LW – Last Week

LY – Last Year

N-DIV - Non Division

O/U – Over /Under

OFF – Offense

R – Road

REV – Revenge

SU – Straight Up

V - Versus

W - Win